Here's my final predictions since the race is less than a week away.
Side note before I begin, but does anyone know why Pauls Jonass will not be representing Latvia at the MXDN? He's fresh off a world title, and despite the country not being in position to place well, it would be potentially another front runner on the gate.
First off, here's teams I think will be outside the top 10.
Puerto Rico
I think it's cool Americans get to race, but at what point do we say fuck it and send our next best guys along with the USA team. I understand there's a lack of honor when representing Puerto Rico and not everyone would want to go, but for the guys on the team, they'll never get the opportunity to ride for the USA so it's understandable they agreed to go (You can't compare Covington to these riders because he's winning GPs). Cool experience nonetheless for Justin Starling, Darian Sanaei, and Marshal Weltin. I don't see any of them doing damage in the motos, but I think they will qualify.
Slovenia
Last year, Tim Gajser (newly crowned champ) didn't even get the opportunity to race! His fellow countrymen couldn't put in results that would put Slovenia in the final motos. Hopefully this year they do, because it would be cool to see another front runner in the mix.
Germany
I haven't been following the GPs as closely as I have previously, but Max Nagl hasn't been on par with his old-self (if you ask me) and this can lend to problems regarding the German team. No disrespect to Henry Jacobi or Dennis Ullrich, but I don't see either of them finishing in the top 20 either moto, and I have a hard time putting Nagl in the top 10. This spells trouble for ze Germans (2018 will definitely be better, with Ken Roczen, Max Nagl, and most likely Brian Hsu).
New Zealand
Not much to say about the Kiwis. Josiah Natzke was picked up by Red Bull KTM in 2015 if I'm not mistaken but hasn't delivered amazing results, however I do think he won an EMX250 GP earlier this year? but still, I don't see him doing damage. New Zealands hopes on even qualifying relies on Cooper putting in a top 10 in the MXGP qualifying race, and hoping Natzke can follow along. I don't know too much about Hamish Harwood.
Russia
I think this will be Bobryshev's last race for HRC (or is he a privateer Honda for this race?). Regardless, their chances of a top 10 overall will be hindered by the absence of Vsevelod Brylyakov (spell check?) in the MX2 class.
Canada
Sorry, Matthes, but I don't see them breaking top 10 without Kaven Benoit on the team who did great last year to propel them to 10th overall.
Estonia
Yes, Tanel Leok is the modern day Mike Larocco, but I don't think it will be enough to put them in the top 10 despite their 9th overall last year.
Onto my top 10 predictions....
10th - Sweden
Fredrik Noren will be leading the team this year on his Ti-lube/Storm Lake Honda; however Filip Bengtsson rode great at last years event if my memory is correct and Alvin Ostlund is a solid MX2 rider in Europe at the moment, on the Wilvo Yamaha team, right? I'm placing them 10th.
9th - Spain
Jorge Prado Garcia is leading the Spaniards into this years event on the MX2 machine. Personally, I'm a big fan of Prado but don't see Butron or Larranga doing anything great. Their top 10 overall depends on how well Prado does against the 450s (I'm betting he grabs a holeshot, especially on the downhill start added to this years track).
8th - Italy
I don't expect Italy to have high standards going into this event, other than Antonio to win the MXGP category. If Antonio doesn't deliver, Italy might not even be top 10.
7th - Australia
I expect a good moto and a bad moto from Dean Ferris, two so-so motos from Kirk Gibbs, and two solid top 20 rides from Hunter Lawrence. All in all, I think they'll be around 7th OA.
6th - Switzerland
This team has had potential to win in years past, but Tonus is coming off a rib injury at his home GP and Valentin Guillod is coming off one of his worst years as a professional. Plus, Jeremy Seewer will be on a 450 after riding a 250 all season, so I can imagine them struggling but still pulling out a respectable overall.
5th - Netherlands
This is where predictions get tricky. Glenn Coldenhoff and Brian Bogers both have potential to put in great rides, putting them in position to even win the overall, but I expect that pressure will get to Herlings. I understand Herlings is a multi-time world champion, but the only way Netherlands can have a chance at winning this event is if he goes 1-1. I see Bogers and Coldenhoff both being in the 10-15 range.
4th - Belguim
You can never count them out, but I see them struggling with Brent van Doninck on the team. I could be completely wrong, though, since Brent is still a solid MX2 rider.
3rd - France
I see the French struggling (since they've been so dominant). Gautier Paulin finished 3rd in the GPs, but was still pretty inconsistent, Romain Febvre has been hot and cold all season, and although I see them placing well, I don't see Charlier being inside the top 10.
2nd - Great Britain
Home crowd, haven't been on the podium in many, many years... Anstie and Wilson are both solid 450 riders and Searle has something to prove on the 250F. I think all three of them will put in respectable motos and place a solid 2nd.
1st - USA
SHOCKER! I'M AMERICAN! but I really do see them winning. Neither Cole nor Covington need to set the world on fire, as long as Osborne delivers. If Osborne places on the podium both motos, then I can see Cole and Covington both being in the 4-7 area and taking home the title
Individual Moto Predictions
MXGP/MX2
1. Antonio Cairoli
2. Zach Osborne
3. Tim Gajser
4. Gautier Paulin
5. Cole Seely
MX2/Open
1. Jeffrey Herlings
2. Thomas Covington
3. Zach Osborne
4. Romain Febvre
5. Dean Wilson
MXGP/Open
1. Jeffrey Herlings
2. Antonio Cairoli
3. Thomas Covington
4. Jeremy van Horebeek
5. Dean Wilson
Flame on